Breaking News:
Gymboree: Child’s Play (RealMoney by TheStreet.com) PDF Print E-mail
Tuesday, 23 February 2010 11:30

Gymboree , the retailer notorious for cladding toddlers in polka-dot headbands and matching skirts, has been growing up. After years of top-line growth driven by expansion into new size ranges, from newborns to the grammar-school set, the company has been experimenting with new concepts to drive incremental growth. Janie and Jack, a high-end infant clothing store, has done well, but is limited in reach. An adult concept, Janeville, was shuttered in 2006 after not meeting profit goals. But management seems to have finally struck a chord with Crazy 8, a concept initially geared to kids aged 8-12 years old.

There is a huge hole in the children’s clothing market for this age range. The Children’s Place owns the low end, while boutique companies, like Mini-Boden, or mail-order houses, like L.L. Bean and Land’s End, dominate the upper end of the pricing spectrum. Crazy 8 was originally positioned as a brand for older children, with prices 30-33% below the premier Gymboree brand, but 20-25% higher than The Children’s Place. After some test marketing, management believed there was little cannibalization of the typical Gymboree customer and added baby and toddler sizes to the Crazy 8 portfolio.

With only 14 Crazy 8 stores open as of the end of Jan. 2008, investors paced the floor and tapped their fingers as they awaited the verdict on Crazy 8’s future. The concept grew to 39 stores, or 4% of overall stores, by the end of FY2008 (year to January 2009), but cost the company $0.18 on the bottom line. With a base of 62 stores by the Oct. 2009 quarter, however, Crazy 8 was able to boast its first profit.

Although management does not disclose sales levels for each of its concepts or quantify the gross margin levels for each one, it commented on the last earnings conference call that “there is quite a spread between the Crazy 8 gross margins and the rest of the brands”. With a lower-end competitor like The Children’s Place sporting 40% gross margins and the corporate average for Gymboree hovering around 47%, one can make an educated guess that Crazy 8’s gross margins are in the low to mid-40s and growing.

Remarkably, GYMB’s overall gross margins haven’t been too traumatized by the addition of these lower-priced goods. After adjusting for a $6 million write-off due to new regulations on children’s apparel in FY2008 (year to January 2009), gross margins are expected to decline 80bp YoY for the year ending January 2010. This decline comprises an overall increase in merchandise margins, offset by negative occupancy leverage caused by negative comp sales. Once comp sales begin to increase, overall gross margins should improve. The arithmetic here shows that gross margins for the basic business are likely flat to improving after the inclusion of this lower-margin business.

Management has pointed to the enormous operating leverage afforded the company by including the Crazy 8 brand. Bulk purchasing offers scale for lower cost of goods, designs are shared for new lines at both stores and, of course, the cost of back-office functions and management is spread over greater revenue dollars. I would argue that Crazy 8 is likely operating at an equivalent operating margin to the basic Gymboree stores and will only improve as the chain grows bigger.

Crazy 8’s store base is expected to grow 77% in FY2010 (year ending January 2011) and will account for roughly 11% of corporate stores compared with 6.8% as of January 2010. With The Children’s Place operating 947 stores, Crazy 8’s still teeny base of 65 stores has loads of room to run. As many speculate that the price sensitivity of consumers is here to stay, Crazy 8 appears to be the perfect tonic for Gymboree’s growth prospects.

Investors have certainly been jittery with respect to Gymboree’s stock. Perversely, one risk I see with the stock is that management has raised guidance marginally five times over the last four months. Instead of celebrating, investors have grown numb to the good news and have begun to panic if management’s tone is less than ebullient. A comment regarding a slowdown in sales for the last two weeks of October caused a 1.5% drop in the stock and at least one sell-side downgrade. While estimates for the fourth quarter have increased from $0.95 to $1.10 over the last two months, the stock has meandered sideways and currently sells at 10x fiscal 2011 estimates.

The reward for buying the stock before the company’s earnings report on Mar. 10 seems to outweigh the risks. GYMB carries a pristine balance sheet with zero debt, $212 million in cash and clean inventory levels. Cash flow from operations was $97 million for the first nine months of this year and should be significantly larger next year due to higher net income. While street estimates assume a gross margin 100bp higher than company guidance for the fourth quarter, the momentum at Crazy 8 and improvements in the company’s boys business could certainly deliver more bang than expected. If management could get gross margins close to the 48% level achieved in FY2007 (year ended January 2008), earnings for FY2011 (year ending January 2012) would be $4.54 versus current estimates of $4.23. With earnings growing at 18%, the stock could leap as high as $70. This is a stock investors could grow old with.

Independent market research, commentary, analysis and news. Learn more.

Read more here:
Gymboree: Child’s Play (RealMoney by TheStreet.com)

 

Stocks to Watch

Prev Next

Stocks rise despite concerns about Greec…

Stocks rise despite concerns about Greece

Click the chart for more market data. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks moved higher Tuesday, erasing earlier losses, on hopes that Greece is nearing a deal to secure more bailout...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 07 Feb 2012 Hits:3 Finance News

Read more

Stocks rise as Greek debt talks evolve

Stocks rise as Greek debt talks evolve

Click the chart for more market data. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks moved higher Tuesday, erasing earlier losses, amid hopes that Greece is nearing a deal to secure more bailout...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 07 Feb 2012 Hits:4 Finance News

Read more

Greece facing 'dramatic dilemma'

Greece facing 'dramatic dilemma'

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos meets with officials from the nation's main political parties to hammer out reforms needed to secure more bailout money. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Officials in Greece...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 07 Feb 2012 Hits:4 Finance News

Read more

China: Fast food nation. Too fast econom…

China: Fast food nation. Too fast economy?

Coca-Cola, Yum! Brands and other well-known U.S. consumer companies are big in China. But will worries about a housing bubble hurt U.S. sales in China this year? NEW YORK (CNNMoney) --...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 07 Feb 2012 Hits:6 Finance News

Read more

Stocks edge higher as Greek debt talks e…

Stocks edge higher as Greek debt talks evolve

Click for more market data. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks moved higher Tuesday, erasing earlier losses, amid hopes that Greece is nearing a deal to secure more bailout money. The Dow...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 07 Feb 2012 Hits:9 Finance News

Read more

Glencore, Xstrata tie-up would create $9…

Glencore, Xstrata tie-up would create $90 billion giant

Swiss company Glencore is in the process of acquiring Xstrata, shown here at one of its mining operations in Australia. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- In a huge consolidation of the international...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 07 Feb 2012 Hits:7 Finance News

Read more

Stocks pressured by Greek bailout uncert…

Stocks pressured by Greek bailout uncertainty

Click for more market data. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks fell early Tuesday, as investors wait for Greek leaders to agree on the terms of a new bailout package, a...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 07 Feb 2012 Hits:5 Finance News

Read more

Stocks slip out of the gate

Stocks slip out of the gate

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks opened lower Tuesday, as investors wait for Greek leaders to agree on the terms of a new bailout package, a key step to avoiding...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 07 Feb 2012 Hits:4 Finance News

Read more

Mining industry shaken up by $62 billion…

Mining industry shaken up by $62 billion deal

Swiss company Glencore is in the process of acquiring Xstrata, shown here at one of its mining operations in Australia. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- In a huge consolidation of the international...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 07 Feb 2012 Hits:4 Finance News

Read more

Stocks on hold for Greece, Bernanke

Stocks on hold for Greece, Bernanke

Click the chart for more premarket data. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks were set to open little changed Tuesday, as investors sit on their hands and wait for Greek leaders...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 07 Feb 2012 Hits:4 Finance News

Read more

Stocks on hold for Greece, Bernanke

Stocks on hold for Greece, Bernanke

Click the chart for more premarket data. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks were set to open little changed Tuesday, as investors sit on their hands and wait for Greek leaders...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 07 Feb 2012 Hits:0 Finance News

Read more

Stocks only look cheap

Stocks only look cheap

FORTUNE -- As fourth quarter earnings come pouring in, Wall Street is assembling the full profit picture for 2011 –– and it's truly spectacular. According to S&P Capital IQ, the...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 06 Feb 2012 Hits:4 Finance News

Read more

Stocks only look cheap

Stocks only look cheap

FORTUNE -- As fourth quarter earnings come pouring in, Wall Street is assembling the full profit picture for 2011 –– and it's truly spectacular. According to S&P Capital IQ, the...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 06 Feb 2012 Hits:0 Finance News

Read more

Stocks only look cheap

Stocks only look cheap

FORTUNE -- As fourth quarter earnings come pouring in, Wall Street is assembling the full profit picture for 2011 –– and it's truly spectacular. According to S&P Capital IQ, the...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 06 Feb 2012 Hits:0 Finance News

Read more

Stocks close lower amid Greece jitters

Stocks close lower amid Greece jitters

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks hovered below the breakeven line throughout the trading day Monday, as investors anxiously awaited a Greek government decision on budget cuts that are key...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 06 Feb 2012 Hits:5 Finance News

Read more

This is NOT a tech bubble

This is NOT a tech bubble

The Nasdaq is trading at its highest level since December 2000 ... but tech stocks are still way below their March 2000 dot-com bubble peaks. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Nasdaq...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 06 Feb 2012 Hits:12 Finance News

Read more

This is NOT a tech bubble

This is NOT a tech bubble

The Nasdaq is trading at its highest level since December 2000 ... but tech stocks are still way below their March 2000 dot-com bubble peaks. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Nasdaq...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 06 Feb 2012 Hits:0 Finance News

Read more

Citi wins OK for Chinese credit card

Citi wins OK for Chinese credit card

A Hong Kong office of Citibank, which won approval to issue its own credit card in China. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Citibank won approval to issue its own credit card in...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 06 Feb 2012 Hits:10 Finance News

Read more

Citi wins OK for Chinese credit card

Citi wins OK for Chinese credit card

A Hong Kong office of Citibank, which won approval to issue its own credit card in China. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Citibank won approval to issue its own credit card in...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 06 Feb 2012 Hits:0 Finance News

Read more

Citi wins OK for Chinese credit card

Citi wins OK for Chinese credit card

A Hong Kong office of Citibank, which won approval to issue its own credit card in China. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Citibank won approval to issue its own credit card in...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 06 Feb 2012 Hits:0 Finance News

Read more

Greece on the brink

Greece on the brink

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos meets with officials from the nation's main political parties to hammer out reforms needed to secure more bailout money. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Officials in Greece...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 06 Feb 2012 Hits:10 Finance News

Read more

Stocks edge lower amid Greece jitters

Stocks edge lower amid Greece jitters

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks fell at Monday's open, as investors anxiously await a Greek government decision on budget cuts that are key to securing a second bailout and...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 06 Feb 2012 Hits:11 Finance News

Read more

Stocks: All eyes on Greece

Stocks: All eyes on Greece

Click the chart for more premarket data. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks were set for a weak open Monday, as investors anxiously await Greek government leaders to reach an agreement...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 06 Feb 2012 Hits:12 Finance News

Read more

Stocks: Let the good times roll?

Stocks: Let the good times roll?

Click for more market data. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks surged last week to their highest levels in years, but there are few key economic reports slated for the week ahead...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 05 Feb 2012 Hits:15 Finance News

Read more

Stocks: Let the good times roll?

Stocks: Let the good times roll?

Click for more market data. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks surged last week to their highest levels in years, but there are few key economic reports slated for the week ahead...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 05 Feb 2012 Hits:0 Finance News

Read more

Dow at 4-year high, Nasdaq hits 11-year …

Dow at 4-year high, Nasdaq hits 11-year high

Click the chart for more stock market data. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rallied Friday, as investors cheered a much stronger-than-expected jobs report. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 157...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 03 Feb 2012 Hits:13 Finance News

Read more

Dow soars after 'monster' jobs report

Dow soars after 'monster' jobs report

Click the chart for more stock market dtaa. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rallied Friday, as investors cheered a much stronger-than-expected jobs report. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 151...

Administrator - avatar Administrator 03 Feb 2012 Hits:17 Finance News

Read more